March 17 - Another day done

No noticeable aftershocks today.  Food is available in our area but you have to get to stores early and line up or staple goods will be sold out.  Very much less traffic and people on the streets today.  No blackouts for us although we were warned of the possibility several times.  Train transportation is reduced and inconsistent.  Many firms have finally stopped operations. 

It becomes difficult to focus on things since I am drawn to the news of the nuclear plants and need to watch their status carefully.  I have no trust in the information coming from either the Japanese or US government and count on them for nothing.  The opinion I've come to is that odds are one of the 6 nuclear plants will start leaking radiation, either from a breach in the containment or from the spent rods outside containment, in quantities large enough to cause an end to even the now greatly reduced ability to keep things under any control.  After that, all efforts at control will have to be suspended and it will be a matter of time before the other plants follow suit.  Then it is a matter of which way the wind blows and what level of radiation is contained in any plume.  

Although the US embassy has finally gotten around to making very limited arrangements for private citizens (a couple flights to some undesignated location in Asia... paid for out of pocket.except for embassy staff), and Brits, Germans and French are being advised to leave Tokyo, I'm convinced that is an overabundance of caution and currently unwarranted.  It looks like much of this action is driven by a feedback loop in which one embassy staff looks at what the other is doing then feels compelled to do the same.  Tokyo is 170 miles from Fukushima and any catastrophic event that might occur in Fukushima would (according to experts) not result in harmful levels of radiation reaching Tokyo in any short period of time, if at all.  This sounds logical.  So, my thinking is that there would be plenty of time for an orderly exodus from the area before anything near a harmful dose of radiation might arrive.  Although many here are getting very nervous, from where I sit, it seems that leaving Tokyo is not necessary.  I am, however, very interested in news of radiation rates and will be watching for any serious spikes as providing the best indicator of whether to leave or not.

Very disappointed with the US Embassy and ambassador who waited far too long and went along with the spin from the Japanese government without independent confirmation for days as the situation clearly deteriorated.  But very happy to follow President Obama's NCAA picks and to know he's going to have a nice weekend in Rio.  P-A-R-T-Y!!!  Enjoy your weekend Mr. President.  Everything is going well here.  Thanks for your concern.

5:00 AM -

Reports of containment breach in reactors 1-3, on top of the problems with spent fuel rods outside containment.  With crews being severely limited in the amount of time they can be near the reactors now, it is hard to see how they can manage the cascading failures.  Radiation levels higher than normal in Tokyo but we're told they are within safe parameters.  Hoping that remains the case but doubtful. 

In this area, streets are nearly deserted.  It is a cold, windy but clear day here.  Food is available but stores can't keep up with demand.  Staple foods sell out quickly in the morning.  Blackouts of electricity have been announced several times but when the scheduled time comes, electricity remains on.  So far we've not experienced any interruption of electricity at all.