March 15 - Normal, this is not...has the exodus begun?

10:00 PM - Was just ready to go to bed when the largest aftershock since Friday's quake hit our area.  Things started to sway slowly (not so bad), then a big jolt, then shaking for a good minute.  Sweet dreams are not made of this.  Fine now.  Felt like a 4 or 5.  Hope that is as bad as it gets.

I'm still amazed that many businesses continue to require their workers to go to work downtown despite the uncertainty of train transport.  After having a heck of a time getting home on Friday after the big quake, I can't imagine the need for many of the businesses to put their workers in that position unless absolutely necessary.  I figure it will be a few more days for things to sort themselves out.   Why tempt fate?

As I go to bed these days, I always wonder what the news will bring in the morning.  So far, at each step of the cascading failures that has lead to where we are now, the government has said, "Not to worry."   Reactor loses coolant... "Not to worry."  Explosions rip apart outer buildings... "Not to worry."  Partial meltdowns in perhaps 3 plants and 3 more on the way... "Not to worry."  Spent rods heating up, increasing radiation levels in the area.... you get the picture.   To say the gov has lost credibility is to put it mildly.  Thank goodness for BBC live coverage and constant updates with correspondents and sources from outside the government.   Let's just hope the containment vessels hold.

Well, off to bed.  We'll see what the morning brings.  Will be headed off to work by bike in the morning and should be able to update with more pics of life on the streets in west Tokyo.

5:00 PM -
There is an attempt by everyone here to try to get on with life as normal, but reality keeps intruding.  First, there are the frequent aftershocks that, although so far not very strong, add to the edginess.  Next, in the area west of Tokyo where I live, there are shortages of food, gas, and other emergency supplies.  Just after the quake people had not yet started hoarding, but now shelves are largely empty.  Add to this the blackouts that so far seem to be more threat than reality.  Each scheduled blackout of electricity has yet to happen, but one never knows what to believe now and has to plan for blackouts whether they materialize or not.  And finally, there is the story of the nuclear plants and the slowly growing crisis there.  It is rather surreal to have to continue going to work when no less than 3 nuclear plants are near meltdown only 150 miles away.  So, I have tried to become knowledgeable about BWRs, cesium microsievert levels, iodine, containment vessels, etc.  It doesn't help that some news outlets seem more interested in being alarmist than in giving reliable and well reasoned analysis.

As of today, (about an hour ago), I did some recon on my bike as I returned home from work.  The amount of goods available on convenience store shelves has become my scale to measure the mood of people here.  As of 5:00 p.m. today, by this measure, the mood is still dark.  Shelves stood empty of staple goods.  Lines for gas at stations remain kilometers long.  And as I rode past one road that offers exit of the city headed west, I saw cars backed up for miles.  What I don't see, is coverage of any exodus of Tokyo, but I suspect that people who can get out are getting out now.

The line for gas (station to right of picture)

The line out of town - normally flowing traffic and never jammed. Now backed up for miles.

Half of businesses closed in the local area.

Yesterday.  Convenience store shelves with food items empty.

5:00 AM -  Up at 5:00 a.m. to check the news.  Quick review of news indicates a worsening situation with spent rods but no serious radiation level increase in the Tokyo area.  US Embassy web site says they are monitoring the situation independently and if radiation levels get bad, they'll let us know. Link to embassy's announcement  Rather unhelpful since, once it becomes clear that radiation levels are dangerous, there is little they can do but tell us to leave or stay indoors... as if we couldn't figure that out for ourselves.  Helpful would be to have contingency plans available.  Perhaps distribution of iodine tablets that are now impossible to find.  That would be helpful. 

Well, it's off to work by bike.   Will see what the stores, roads and gas stations look like today.