Saturday, March 19, 2011

March 20 - Staying put and turning off embassy info

11:30 PM - Things getting back to normal enough that I felt confident to return the go-bags to the closet.   Plants #5 and 6 under control, but plants 3 and 4 still a problem.  The feeling of uneasiness in Tokyo seems to have been reduced by the increase of independent monitoring.  Hopefully, restoring electricity to the plants can help stabilize #1 and 2.  But this problem isn't going to be over for months. 

1:21 PM - Very good discussion of where things stand at the nuclear plants, what could still happen and what to look for in the near term.  From NPR...Update on Fukushima power plants
Key point... "Mr. LOCHBAUM: Well, one of the concerns with doing that is that the water weighs about eight pounds per gallon. The spent pools are on fire, or maybe on fire, and you're trying to get that situation resolved. One of the things you don't want to do is have the cure be worse than the problem originally.
If you put too much weight on top of the spent fuel pool, you could cause the racks that are holding the fuel assemblies to collapse. If the spent fuel reconfigures, you could actually cause a critical mass to be formed and restart a nuclear chain reaction and have a reactor core operating outside of containment."  Not good.


9:38 AM - Yesterday, the only issue of concern was a travel warning from the embassy that urged US citizens to leave.  This was a departure from the previous information that told us we could leave if we wanted to but there was really no reason to do so.  The embassy, despite my efforts to get clarification, offered no explanation.  Ambassador Roos seems to issue by the minute updates about how helpful the embassy is being, but on this rather important issue, he has been content to let a confused message stand.  So...  I'm ignoring the embassy messaging now.  I'll base my decisions on other sources of info, and all of those other sources (especially radiation level reports) indicate there is no problem in Tokyo that would cause me to leave.... yet.  Many expats are leaving, however, Leaving I think they are spooked by the uncertainty rather more than the reality of the situation.  Can't blame those with kids for wanting to get some distance between them and the power plants.  Kids are out of school right now, having finished their academic year.  There will likely be some tough choices to be made as the school year begins again in early April.

Beautiful day here.  Sunny and warm.  Friends say (and my own experience here is similar) that lines for food are going down.  The initial disruption to supply is mostly over and hoarders have their pantries full.  Now it is a matter of seeing what the 'new normal' becomes.  Businesses, trying to avoid disruption to operations, seem to be eying a move to Osaka.  Whether that is a temporary measure or whether Osaka begins to challenge Tokyo's dominance is not yet clear.

Seems pretty difficult to plug in to relief efforts in the area around Fukushima.  Going there on one's own to try to help would just add to the problem, but it is hard to sit on my hands and do nothing as the stories of the victims trickles out. Aftermath

Friday, March 18, 2011

March 19 - Little change...

2:58 PM - Good site for list of relief organizations working in Japan.  This link came from the US Embassy.  For people wishing to contribute, this looks like a good source.  Relief for Japan 

2:07 PM - The embassy has just changed their travel warning to tell people not to come to Japan and urging US citizens in Japan to leave. That is a big change but has gotten no coverage. Before, they simply were facilitating the exit of people who wanted to leave, but their position was that leaving was not necessary. So far, no explanation of this change and although I'm on their emergency notification list, no e-mail update indicating any change at all. This kind of poor communication is about he last thing anyone needs right now. If there is a change in status that should necessitate US citizens to leave, it would be nice to know what the basis for that is. But to fob off a major change like that in some unheralded travel update is really unhelpful and just adds to the anxiety.  DoS is dropping the ball.

11:10 AM - It has turned sunny and is getting warmer.  Electrical outages canceled.

7:36 AM - It is a cold, gray day here this morning.  A quick scan of the news shows no increase in radiation but little progress with efforts at Fukushima to get things under control.  The situation for us here in the Tokyo area looks like it will be unchanged for some time.  Mostly we're inconvenienced right now with train service reduced and lines for staple goods.  Getting gas for vehicles remains a problem.  But otherwise we are fine.  Metropolis Magazine is publishing radiation levels at this site Tokyo radiation levels  and I'll be checking it regularly. 

The people in Fukushima, however, are still not getting what they need and temperatures up there are low.  The exclusion zone and gas shortages seem to be the problem.  Good report here by NYT Fukushima residents here and here by (surprisingly) Al Jazeera.  Fukushima relief problems

Thursday, March 17, 2011

March 18 - The new normal for Tokyo?

9:29 PM - For anyone still thinking they can rely on information about safety coming from government sources, this article should put an end to that...Coverup

This article gives some indication of what the people in Fukushima are facing. Tragedy

8:10 PM - The Japanese government is not doing a very good job of managing 2 crises at once.  The people of Fukushima are not getting the help they need in these critical days after the quake.  This article offers some good organizations to consider sending donations to.  http://bit.ly/hykjuh   I'll be looking around to see what other options might be available to plug in to an immediate effort on the ground here.  Gas shortages and disorganization  plague the relief efforts.  Keep you posted.

3:20 PM - Just went for a bit of a look around the area.  Trip to the local mall.  No work today so a bit of time on my hands.  First thing I noticed was the gas station had gas.  Cars were lined up for about half a mile.  Next, trains running to the station where the mall is located were running at about 15 minute intervals instead of the usual 4 or 5.  No train schedule posted either.  Just have to take what comes when it comes.  Then, a bit of a shock, but nearly all of the stores at the mall were closed but for the grocery store, McDonalds, and Starbucks.  Doors shut and locked on the other 50 or more stores in the complex.  This is going to deal a serious blow to the economy if it keeps up much longer. 

11:58  AM - This just posted... US flights to detect radiation show no increase outside the immediate area. NYT article

10:26 AM - I'm thinking we Tokyoites will be faced with the same dilemma as the frog in the cooking pot. The heat (in this case, radioactivity levels) will likely increase incrementally over time and it will be up to each of us to decide if we want to jump or just wait till it all gets a bit hotter.  Too soon to really know what the long term ramifications for Tokyo will be, but living 155 miles (checked it on Google maps) SW of a boiling teapot of nuclear isotopes can't be good for the city.

6:00 AM - The situation at the nuclear plants has "stabilized" although the word 'stable' has to be stood on its end to be applied here.  From news accounts it doesn't appear they will be able to get or keep it under control.  Attempts at restoring electrical power from the grid are ongoing but success depends on whether the pumps and systems in the plant have survived the previous damage and will be operable.  We'll see, but I'm doubtful.  This is a good article summarizing where we are now.  http://bit.ly/eR032S

The US has finally got their monitoring devices here and they are in place.  The Japanese gov has given permission for them to fly the 'pods' with sophisticated monitoring devices through the area.  This is supposed to give a very accurate reading of Cesium levels.  Much needed information and I hope it will be disseminated widely.

A line forms just before opening .
As for life in western Tokyo, there seems to be a settling in of a new normal.  Work in Tokyo greatly cut back.  Trains operating intermittently.  Rolling blackouts said to be occurring but not yet in our area.  As the picture to the left shows, people line up for food in the morning if they need staple items, otherwise they're gone from shelves quickly.  But the shelves were fully stocked at the opening.  Lines getting shorter, too.   Streets continue to be pretty empty of traffic.  People aren't out and about in large numbers. 

Yesterday after the embassies began making arrangements for people to get out of Tokyo, and after the US increased their exclusion zone to 80km, many friends were questioning their decisions to stay in Tokyo.  I think that today, the mood is that things are playing out slowly enough that leaving is an option but not necessary at this time.  This looks like it will be a long term problem now.  What is needed most for those of us living in the Tokyo environs is a source of clear, accurate information from sources independent of the government.  And we certainly shouldn't forget the plight of the tsunami survivors up north who are homeless, freezing cold, without food and water and heat.  They need everyone's help and concern and should be the focus of attention, concern and aid.

March 17 - Another day done

No noticeable aftershocks today.  Food is available in our area but you have to get to stores early and line up or staple goods will be sold out.  Very much less traffic and people on the streets today.  No blackouts for us although we were warned of the possibility several times.  Train transportation is reduced and inconsistent.  Many firms have finally stopped operations. 

It becomes difficult to focus on things since I am drawn to the news of the nuclear plants and need to watch their status carefully.  I have no trust in the information coming from either the Japanese or US government and count on them for nothing.  The opinion I've come to is that odds are one of the 6 nuclear plants will start leaking radiation, either from a breach in the containment or from the spent rods outside containment, in quantities large enough to cause an end to even the now greatly reduced ability to keep things under any control.  After that, all efforts at control will have to be suspended and it will be a matter of time before the other plants follow suit.  Then it is a matter of which way the wind blows and what level of radiation is contained in any plume.  

Although the US embassy has finally gotten around to making very limited arrangements for private citizens (a couple flights to some undesignated location in Asia... paid for out of pocket.except for embassy staff), and Brits, Germans and French are being advised to leave Tokyo, I'm convinced that is an overabundance of caution and currently unwarranted.  It looks like much of this action is driven by a feedback loop in which one embassy staff looks at what the other is doing then feels compelled to do the same.  Tokyo is 170 miles from Fukushima and any catastrophic event that might occur in Fukushima would (according to experts) not result in harmful levels of radiation reaching Tokyo in any short period of time, if at all.  This sounds logical.  So, my thinking is that there would be plenty of time for an orderly exodus from the area before anything near a harmful dose of radiation might arrive.  Although many here are getting very nervous, from where I sit, it seems that leaving Tokyo is not necessary.  I am, however, very interested in news of radiation rates and will be watching for any serious spikes as providing the best indicator of whether to leave or not.

Very disappointed with the US Embassy and ambassador who waited far too long and went along with the spin from the Japanese government without independent confirmation for days as the situation clearly deteriorated.  But very happy to follow President Obama's NCAA picks and to know he's going to have a nice weekend in Rio.  P-A-R-T-Y!!!  Enjoy your weekend Mr. President.  Everything is going well here.  Thanks for your concern.

5:00 AM -

Reports of containment breach in reactors 1-3, on top of the problems with spent fuel rods outside containment.  With crews being severely limited in the amount of time they can be near the reactors now, it is hard to see how they can manage the cascading failures.  Radiation levels higher than normal in Tokyo but we're told they are within safe parameters.  Hoping that remains the case but doubtful. 

In this area, streets are nearly deserted.  It is a cold, windy but clear day here.  Food is available but stores can't keep up with demand.  Staple foods sell out quickly in the morning.  Blackouts of electricity have been announced several times but when the scheduled time comes, electricity remains on.  So far we've not experienced any interruption of electricity at all.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

March 16 - Hope is not a plan.

Another day, another meltdown.  Keeping myself informed of the current situation and watching events unfold in slow motion.  The nuclear plant situation is going from bad to worse and now looks like there is no way to keep it from escalating.  Rather than this being resolved soon, it looks as if it will be a long affair as Japanese workers try to contain the radioactivity that is now escaping.  What that means to Tokyo residents depends on the wind, weather and levels of concentration of radioactivity.  Assurances by our embassy staff that they aren't worried tend to make me wonder about their competence.   The press conference held by Ambassador Roos was ludicrous and embarrassing.   Absolutely unhelpful as he deferred to others, obfuscated, and did the typical diplomatic doublespeak.   Roos (or perhaps more aptly "Ruse")  is not up to the task of looking ahead and having a credible Plan B in place should it become necessary.  Rather, they seem to be hoping radiation levels remain low.  Hope is not a plan.

Given the uncertainty and the lack of credible info from the Japanese government, added to the lack of useful information and contingency plans from the US government, it appears that many are leaving Tokyo.  This is fortunately the school break for kids so getting family out of town is not so difficult right now.  Getting one's gas tank filled up, once on the road, may be quite another matter.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

March 16 - Update


From what I could tell from my convenience store survey this morning, there are still empty shelves.  To the left is the same store I took pictures of yesterday.  You can see some boxed lunches still available. 

As for the local grocery store, best be close to first in line when it opens.  They allow 30 or 40 people in at a time then others can come in as the first group leaves.  Milk, eggs, bread, rice.. all go quickly.   By mid-afternoon shelves were once again bare.

Restock of convenience stores is happening regularly and this truck had the shelves full again when I came back a few hours later.  People have been requested to stop hoarding, but there still seems to be a lot of it going on.  




On the way to work today (about a 20km commute by bike), traffic was significantly off.  Much more like a slow weekend's traffic than a weekday. This picture is the same area that had traffic backed up for miles yesterday.  Today... deserted.    




Gas is in short supply.  The only stations that had gas yesterday were closed today.  The only station I found on my commute that had gas (this Eneos station), also had a long line of cars waiting.  Police stationed at the intersection to direct traffic.







Otherwise, it is a gorgeous day today and this baseball team is out taking advantage of it as they practice along the Tama River.
 The sun came out and shone brilliantly from the clouds.
 






And plum trees are blossoming.   Promises of the coming spring.  The cherry blossoms this year will take on a special significance. 

Reminders to anyone who can, the Red Cross is helping out in Sendai and can use donations.   Those people have little food and shelter and it is now snowing. 


March 15 - Normal, this is not...has the exodus begun?

10:00 PM - Was just ready to go to bed when the largest aftershock since Friday's quake hit our area.  Things started to sway slowly (not so bad), then a big jolt, then shaking for a good minute.  Sweet dreams are not made of this.  Fine now.  Felt like a 4 or 5.  Hope that is as bad as it gets.

I'm still amazed that many businesses continue to require their workers to go to work downtown despite the uncertainty of train transport.  After having a heck of a time getting home on Friday after the big quake, I can't imagine the need for many of the businesses to put their workers in that position unless absolutely necessary.  I figure it will be a few more days for things to sort themselves out.   Why tempt fate?

As I go to bed these days, I always wonder what the news will bring in the morning.  So far, at each step of the cascading failures that has lead to where we are now, the government has said, "Not to worry."   Reactor loses coolant... "Not to worry."  Explosions rip apart outer buildings... "Not to worry."  Partial meltdowns in perhaps 3 plants and 3 more on the way... "Not to worry."  Spent rods heating up, increasing radiation levels in the area.... you get the picture.   To say the gov has lost credibility is to put it mildly.  Thank goodness for BBC live coverage and constant updates with correspondents and sources from outside the government.   Let's just hope the containment vessels hold.

Well, off to bed.  We'll see what the morning brings.  Will be headed off to work by bike in the morning and should be able to update with more pics of life on the streets in west Tokyo.

5:00 PM -
There is an attempt by everyone here to try to get on with life as normal, but reality keeps intruding.  First, there are the frequent aftershocks that, although so far not very strong, add to the edginess.  Next, in the area west of Tokyo where I live, there are shortages of food, gas, and other emergency supplies.  Just after the quake people had not yet started hoarding, but now shelves are largely empty.  Add to this the blackouts that so far seem to be more threat than reality.  Each scheduled blackout of electricity has yet to happen, but one never knows what to believe now and has to plan for blackouts whether they materialize or not.  And finally, there is the story of the nuclear plants and the slowly growing crisis there.  It is rather surreal to have to continue going to work when no less than 3 nuclear plants are near meltdown only 150 miles away.  So, I have tried to become knowledgeable about BWRs, cesium microsievert levels, iodine, containment vessels, etc.  It doesn't help that some news outlets seem more interested in being alarmist than in giving reliable and well reasoned analysis.

As of today, (about an hour ago), I did some recon on my bike as I returned home from work.  The amount of goods available on convenience store shelves has become my scale to measure the mood of people here.  As of 5:00 p.m. today, by this measure, the mood is still dark.  Shelves stood empty of staple goods.  Lines for gas at stations remain kilometers long.  And as I rode past one road that offers exit of the city headed west, I saw cars backed up for miles.  What I don't see, is coverage of any exodus of Tokyo, but I suspect that people who can get out are getting out now.

The line for gas (station to right of picture)
The line out of town - normally flowing traffic and never jammed. Now backed up for miles.
Half of businesses closed in the local area.
Yesterday.  Convenience store shelves with food items empty.


5:00 AM -  Up at 5:00 a.m. to check the news.  Quick review of news indicates a worsening situation with spent rods but no serious radiation level increase in the Tokyo area.  US Embassy web site says they are monitoring the situation independently and if radiation levels get bad, they'll let us know. Link to embassy's announcement  Rather unhelpful since, once it becomes clear that radiation levels are dangerous, there is little they can do but tell us to leave or stay indoors... as if we couldn't figure that out for ourselves.  Helpful would be to have contingency plans available.  Perhaps distribution of iodine tablets that are now impossible to find.  That would be helpful. 

Well, it's off to work by bike.   Will see what the stores, roads and gas stations look like today.